Smooth sailing so far in to November, as the waters seem to remain calm and the world opens back up again. It’s fun to be social again, and for the first time in a year and a half, Real Estate isn’t the main topic on *everyone’s* minds. < probably just mine. >
Someone asked me today if we’re seeing more homes hit the market in Grassland, “because it seems like it.”
The truth is no. It may seem like we’re noticing more For Sale signs in yards, but year-over-year, we had about a third fewer homes close in October. [39 in October 2020 vs. 26 in October 2021]
It’s an even bigger decrease month-to-month from September 2021 to October 2021. [45 in September to 26 in October] A 42% decrease in the number of homes sold month-to-month!
I expect this trend to hold steady or continue inching slightly downward through November and December before rebounding again after the first of the year.
What This Means
This is the first fall in 2 years where we seem to be “even keel” as we navigate the waters of Real Estate. This is good for both Buyers and Sellers. For Buyers, there is not as much competition and most of the people who sell this time of year are people to have to, so there is a bit more of a “leg up” than what we experienced even a month ago. I’ve even had some Buyers win offers on my listings recently with a pass/fail inspection contingency, yet still come back and try to negotiate inspection repairs (which wasn’t even a thought two months ago).
For Sellers, you have less competition among listings on the market. And though the heat seems to have cooled a bit for Buyers, there are still more Buyers than Sellers out there right now. So your home will sell quickly, and you’ll still be getting a great return as values continue to hold steady.
A Look at Values
Sellers have pulled back on selling their homes — to a level that hasn’t been seen in a decade here in Grassland. In fact, the only October where fewer Sellers sold than last month was in 2011, on the heels of the Great Recession. And though this October saw a number of home sales comparable to the average of the Great Recession era, it’s due to different reasons, so we’re seeing a different effect on our home values today. Supply and Demand is causing upward pressure on pricing.
Homes in Grassland averaged a $993,962 sales price in October 2020. A year later, that price shot up to $1,048,191 in October 2021. That’s a 5% increase in Grassland home values year-over-year, and is the most recent price analysis (calculating everything that closed up to October 31, 2021).
In Grassland, we are averaging 12 Days on Market in October 2021 versus 40 in October 2020, which supports the idea that demand remains high.
Getting more detailed, neighborhood-by-neighborhood, this is a snapshot of average sales price in October 2021 versus homes sold in the same neighborhoods in 2020:
- Prescott Place: $435,000 sales price in October vs. $337,500 in 2020. (+22.41%)
- Fieldstone Farms: $613,571 average sales price in October vs. $472,434 average in 2020. (+23%)
- Founders Pointe: $630,000 sales price in October vs. $469,708 average in 2020. (+25.44%)
- Temple Hills: $807,500 average sales price in October vs. $701,854 average in 2020. (+13.08%)
- Cottonwood: $675,000 sales price in October vs. $572,411 average in 2020. (+15.19%)
- Montpier Farms: $750,000 sales price in October vs. $869,875 average in 2020. (-13.78%)
- Cornerstone: $819,250 sales price in October vs. $545,000 in 2020. (+33.48%)
- Forest Home Farms: $959,000 sales price in October vs. $697,500 (+27.27%)
- Cardel Village: $899,500 sales price in October vs. $734,500 average in 2020. (+18.34%)
- Hunterwood: $1,300,000 sales price in October vs. $755,967 average in 2020. (+41.84%)
- River Landing: $1,150,000 sales price in October vs. $897,544 average in 2020. (+21.95%)
- Gardens at Old Natchez: $1,250,000 sales price in October. N/A for 2020.
- Harts Landmark: $1,450,000 sales price in October vs. $1,050,501 average in 2020. (+27.55%)
- Highgate: $1,499,000 sales price in October vs. $555,000 average in 2020. (+62.97%)
- Legends Ridge: $1,560,000 sales price in October vs. $1,462,817 average in 2020. (+6.23%)
- Conrad: $1,520,000 sales price in October. N/A for 2020.
- Natchez Valley: $1,900,000 sales price in October vs. $1,200,000 in 2020. (+36.84%)
- Stockett Creek: $2,300,000 sales price in October vs. $1,416,250 average in 2020. (+38.42%)
Keep in mind, homes, features and lots in the same neighborhood can be different sizes and yield different sales prices. So this isn’t a total apples-to-apples comparison. But interesting gains to consider, nonetheless!
What to Watch
There is a plethora of “scuttlebutt” as people anticipate another housing crash. At this point, I personally don’t expect a correction in our prices for another few years, but there are some factors I’m keeping an eye on that could change this.
We’ve got inflation, affordability, foreclosures and forbearances coming to roost as those protections expire. Plus Zillow offloading more than a billion dollars of inventory as they close their failed iBuyer experiment. Any one of these can take the wind out of our market’s sails as they cause a kink in our demand pipeline. So, many of the Sellers I’m talking to right now are planning to list ASAP because who really knows what’s around the corner.
As we watch these moving parts and predict what’s next, the only thing we DO know is what’s happening now. And right now, Sellers and Buyers are sailing into the sunset.
For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and I’m a Two-Time Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR® ranking in the top 1.5% of Realtors in Williamson County. I am a recent Designee of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, have been featured on TV and my success is the topic of an article in the July 2020 edition of Nashville Real Producers magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.