Grassland Monthly Real Estate Recap: September/October 2021

October 31, 2021

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The last weekend in October is all things Trick-or-Treat at my house!

Boo at the Zoo with my … boo. < sorry I had to > And the kiddos are alllll kinds of hyped for the candy haul they’re about to make on our home turf. These traditions are among the things “witch” we love about our neighborhood and community, and we wanted so badly to be part of when we were looking to move here so many years ago.

Clients ask me all the time what we love about living here in Grassland, and hands-down, it’s the community.

It’s sad that in such a short amount of time, so many Buyers are being priced out of these neighborhoods and the “community” that they so badly want to be part of.

Our market here in Grassland has exploded in price. The numbers for October won’t be out for another few days, so we’ll cite the most recent: September 2021.

Homes zoned for Grassland Middle School sold at an average price of $1,213,442

in September 2021.

That’s about a $306,000 increase in average sales price ($907,247) in September 2020.

It’s a half-million dollars more expensive than our average sales price of $698,571 in September 2019.

Keeping Pace with the Country

Just about a week ago, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index was released, naming August another record-shattering month for home price increases across the country. This makes 15-months straight of increases — unprecedented in at least three decades.

For September, Real Estate tech firm MoxiWorks reported 572,000 home sales nationwide. Those numbers indicate the market was even stronger than expected, since the firm previously predicted lower sales numbers.

While the sales pries increases are giving records a run for their money, and sales numbers are higher than predicted nationwide, we’re still seeing a lower number of homes for sale and closed this year than in years past. The lower number of home sales have been part of what is driving these price increases.

I put together the above graphic to reflect our sales numbers in Williamson County. We only had 457 closings in September countywide. This is about a hundred fewer homes sold than the year before, in September 2020. Along with price increases, we saw homes sell considerably faster. They remained on the market only 8 days in September 2021 as opposed to 27 days a year prior.

It is interesting to note that the average sales price in Williamson County decreased by about $43,000 month-to-month (from August to September), and I think a lot of that has to do with a return to seasonal Buyer behavior patterns than a softening of the market. Most homes closed in September went under contract in August, when school resumed. This market is driven largely by the school schedule and for the first time in a year and a half, we’re seeing something reminiscent of the 2019 real estate market (which we thought was awesome back then). Fast-forward two years, and I see it as a relief to Buyers who may not have to fight so hard for a home as they have in the past 6 months, while Sellers are still in the drivers seat.

Looking Ahead

Interest rates have crept up over the 3% mark for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Rates are expected to climb as high as 4% by the end of 2022. Though this is higher than the 2.65% all-time low at the beginning of January 2021, it’s not expected this will cause much of a speed bump in Buyer appetite for the next year or so.

True, our increase in prices and increasing mortgage rates could further narrow the pool of Buyers, but we’re still seeing and expecting supply to be considerably less than demand in the coming months and even years. We’re also expecting strong demand to continue among higher-income earners. Real Estate research firm CoreLogic released a statement from its Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp, saying “demand pressures continue to drive home price growth higher despite some early signs of Buyer fatigue and slight improvements in the availability of for-sale homes.”

When it comes to an increase in supply, higher demand, rising interest rates and even more price growth, Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater chimes in, saying “Despite these countervailing forces, we expect the housing market to remain strong as we head into the end of the year.”

The National Association of Realtors reports home prices across the country were up 14.9% from August 2020. Zillow forecasts another 11.7% increase in home sales prices for 2022. Many other economists and real estate firms have made their projections and many fall along these lines — one firm saying home prices will continue growing more than 31% over the next five years!

So, take the weekend to enjoy all these Halloween festivities, but if you’re wanting to jump into the real estate game, to sell and buy a home, I wouldn’t put it off much longer. Take advantage of this season right now when a lot of Buyer competition is distracted by the holidays, but there’s still enough activity to sell your home for top dollar. It may be the least scary experience you’ll have all fall.

For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and I’m a Two-Time Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR® ranking in the top 1.5% of Realtors in Williamson County. I am a recent Designee of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, have been featured on TV and my success is the topic of an article in the July 2020 edition of Nashville Real Producers magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.